Early signs suggest Team SA can rock 2028 Los Angeles Olympics

It’s still early days, but Team South Africa is on track to mount a challenge for a record medal haul at the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028.

Right now, there are no fewer than 21 individual competitors and teams ranked in the world’s top 10 across eight codes — from swimming and athletics to rugby and cricket.

The world championship season of Olympic codes came to a close this morning with rowing’s showpiece in Shanghai, where single sculler Paige Badenhorst was bidding to join men’s pair teammates Chris Baxter and Damian Bonhage-Koen in the top 10. It could be 22 by now.

And when it came to podium finishes this year, swimming, cycling and athletics matched the six medals won at Paris 2024, even upgrading the gold tally from one to two. One could push it up to seven medals by including Jordy Smith’s third spot on the World Surf League rankings.

Pieter Coetzé came first in the 100m backstroke in Singapore, and mountain-biker Alan Hatherly dominated the men’s cross-country race in Switzerland earlier this month.

SA’s richest return

In terms of total medals won at the Olympics, South Africa’s richest return has been 10 — achieved on three occasions: at Rio 2016, Helsinki 1952 and Antwerp 1920.

In terms of gold medals won, it’s four, at London 2012 and Stockholm 1912. The country won three gold at Atlanta 1996 and in Antwerp.

To win 10 medals, South Africa will need to have 20 genuine contenders going into the games, the bulk of them being in the top five. Statistically, half won’t reach the podium because they’ll fail to find their top form for varying reasons ranging from injury to illness.

Right now, there are 13 in the top five, with swimming and athletics providing four each. There are solid grounds to argue that others belong in that realm.

For example, the men’s 4x100m relay team, the Olympic silver medallists from last year, failed to make the final at the world athletics championships last weekend, but the 37.61sec they ran to win World Relays gold earlier this year is the third-fastest time of 2025.

The mixed 4x400m relay finished sixth in Tokyo, but had Miranda Coetzee been fit to compete in the final and repeated her split from the morning heats, they would have ended third.

Swimmer Rebecca Meder fell ill at her world championships, but the 200m breaststroke personal best she set at the national championships in April would have placed her fifth in that event, where teammate Kaylene Corbett took bronze.

World beaters

Hamish Lovemore ended a disappointing 11th in the men’s K1 1,000m at the ICF canoe sprint world championships in Italy, having won two silvers in marathon events at the World Games in China shortly before that.

But earlier in the year he bagged the K1 1,000m silver at a World Cup event featuring most of the Olympic finalists from Paris 2024.

The last time South Africa had this much strength stashed in one squad was in the build-up to the 2016 Olympics in Rio, when they boasted world-beaters like Wayde van Niekerk, Chad Le Clos, Caster Semenya and the Blitzboks.

Apart from the 10 gongs won in 2016, they also ended with a record four fourth places.

Los Angeles could be the battleground where South Africa finally breaches the 10-medal threshold that has stood for more than a century.

The pool of hopefuls for 2028 could be even bigger if some rising youngsters push through to make their mark in time for Los Angeles.

Sprinter Bayanda Walaza showed great form before getting injured in the Diamond League final.

Plenty of promise

Udeme Okon, the 2024 under-20 world champion, and Leendert Koekemoer carry plenty of promise in the 400m. One cannot rule out 2022 under-20 400m world champion Lythe Pillay.

In swimming, there’s newly crowned 200m butterfly world junior champion Kris Mihaylov. The federation is confident some of their relay teams could be in play in three years’ time.

Central to Team South Africa’s medal hopes is swimmer Coetzé, winner of three gongs in Singapore, where he took gold in the 100m backstroke and silver in both the 50m and 200m backstroke. He’s looking to add the 100m freestyle to his roster.

No South African has won more than three medals at a single Olympics, a feat accomplished only by swimmer Roland Schoeman at Athens 2004 and athlete Bevil Rudd in 1920.

But one of the biggest challenges facing the country is sport minister Gayton McKenzie’s slashing of funding to federations, which seems to average more than 50% across the top Olympic codes.

Funding is crucial

The Operation Excellence funding programme run by the South African Sports Confederation and Olympic Committee (Sascoc) is crucial to preparing the team.

Whether it can off-set the impact of the cuts remains to be seen.

Lifting the standard of competitors from 10th in the world to top five is a specialist task and is as much about natural talent as it is about the athlete receiving the necessary level of support.

Some Olympic federations do enjoy sponsorships, but they need to spend that money efficiently.

By and large, South Africa has yet to achieve the right balance in the high performance sphere. Too much power rests with politicians and sport administrators who control the purse strings, as opposed to good coaches and sports scientists who require the space to prime their athletes.

Team South Africa’s potential for Los Angeles will be assessed in full again in 2027, after the next round of world championships across all major Olympic codes.

All they have now is a promising launching pad.

Medal hopefuls for 2028 Olympics (based on world championship placings or rankings):

1

Pieter Coetzé (swimming — 100m backstroke)
Alan Hatherly (mountain biking — cross country)

2

Pieter Coetzé (swimming — 50m backstroke)
Pieter Coetzé (swimming — 200m backstroke)

3

Kaylene Corbett (swimming — 200m breaststroke)
Men’s 4x400m team (athletics)
Jordy Smith (surfing)

4

Jo-Ane du Plessis (athletics — women’s javelin)
Blitzboks (rugby sevens)

5

Gift Leotlela (athletics — men’s 100m)
Zakithi Nene (athletics — men’s 400m)
Men’s T20 team (cricket)
Women’s T20 team (cricket)

6

Mixed 4x400m team (athletics)
Chris Smith (swimming — 50m breaststroke)

7

Akani Simbine (athletics — 100m)

8

Sinesipho Dambile (athletics — 200m)
Erin Gallagher (swimming — 50m butterfly)

9

Tshepo Tshite (athletics — men’s 1,500m)

10

Adriaan Wildschutt (athletics — men’s 10,000m)
Chris Baxter & Damian Bonhage-Koen (rowing — men’s pair)

Other medal prospects:

Men’s 4x100m team (athletics — 2025 World Relays champion and 2024 Olympic silver medallists)
Hamish Lovemore (canoeing — K1 1,000m; 2nd at World Cup regatta)
Rebecca Meder (swimming — 200m breaststroke; her personal best in April would have earned her fifth spot at world championships)
Prudence Sekgodiso (athletics — 800m; world indoor champion and 2024 Olympic finalist)
Aldrich Potgieter (golf — the 21-year-old won his maiden PGA Tour crown this year, and is the highest-ranked South African)