Smaller baskets, faster meals: families change what goes on the plate

South African households are shopping more often but buying fewer items on each trip as consumers take an increasingly selective approach to managing grocery budgets while changing how they prepare and consume food.

New findings from consumer research organisation Worldpanel by Numerator’s “Plate of the Nation” report show the South African fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market reached R422bn in the 12 months to June 2026, growing 2.3% in value. Volume growth was just 1.3%, while overall household consumption remained broadly flat.

The change was evident in shopping behaviour. Households made an average of 108 grocery trips during the year, up from 105 a year earlier. At the same time, the number of packs purchased per trip fell from 6.55 to 6.37, while average pack size declined by 0.5%.

Vanessa Hall, commercial growth partner at Worldpanel by Numerator South Africa, said households were becoming more deliberate about how they allocated grocery spending.

“The story is not simply that consumers are managing their spend. They are becoming much more selective about how they spend, and that is changing the composition of the basket,” Hall said.

The longer-term trend points to ongoing pressure on consumers. Hall said lower-income households had largely maintained spending levels despite inflation, effectively buying less volume over time.

“Households have absolutely been buying less. That decline has slowed down, and we’re now flat,” she said.

Food, which accounts for about 62% of the tracked grocery basket, is showing slightly stronger momentum. The market was worth R260bn in the year to June, with value growth of 2.4% and volume growth of 1.8%. Households bought about 0.5% more food volume than a year earlier.

Growth is increasingly concentrated in products that save time and effort

Growth is increasingly concentrated in products that save time and effort. Instant noodles recorded an 11.5% increase in volume per buyer, while bread and breakfast cereal volumes rose 1.3% and 1.9%, respectively. By contrast, products associated with longer preparation times declined, including flour, down 6.8%, and pasta, down 4.6%.

Hall said the shift was also visible in prepared frozen poultry products such as nuggets and steaklets that can be quickly cooked in an air fryer. Household penetration of prepared frozen poultry increased from 18.7% in 2024 to 23.3% in 2026, while non-prepared frozen poultry declined.

The trend may also suggest consumers are eating at home more often, although Worldpanel does not have data showing whether restaurant spending has fallen.

“What we are seeing is this growth in convenience,” Hall said. “If it’s saving me time, but actually also saving me money because I would have been eating out, then potentially people are eating out less and bringing more in-home.”

She said products such as grocery-store frozen pies appeared to offer consumers a cheaper substitute for some out-of-home meals.

The report shows that convenience, however, does not mean consumers are sacrificing taste.

Flavour enhancers account for 10.5% of food value, while hot-sauce penetration increased from 45.5% of households in 2024 to 52.3% in 2026. Marinade penetration rose from 25% to 29.4%, and the average number of table-sauce varieties bought per household increased from 2.9 to 3.1.

“South Africans still want flavour, but they just want it easier,” Hall said.

Eggs and dairy have also emerged as key growth categories. Together they accounted for 16.3% of food value in June 2026, up from 14.9% two years earlier.

Egg penetration increased from 82.5% of households in 2024 to 88.1% in 2026, while annual volume per buyer rose from 183 to 234 eggs.

Milk consumption is also shifting away from fresh milk towards UHT milk and milk alternatives.

Health-focused products are another growth area, particularly among higher-income consumers. A basket that includes products such as oats, honey and milk alternatives recorded 12% household-level volume growth, despite remaining a relatively small R4.7bn segment.

Consumers are also not abandoning treats altogether. Snacking spend continues to rise gradually, with salty snacks increasing their share of category volume from 35.7% two years ago to 38% in 2026.

For manufacturers and retailers, Hall said the challenge is finding growth in a market where overall household volumes remain flat.

“The market is flat in terms of volume, but there is absolutely growth when you’re meeting the needs of shoppers,” she said.

The research is based on a panel of 6,500 South African households that record purchases through an app by scanning products and uploading receipts. It covers purchases across both modern and traditional retail channels.

Hall said the findings reflect a consumer weighing price, convenience, time, taste and health in increasingly connected purchasing decisions.

“Products that save me time, make it easy to get flavour and are healthy” are increasingly meeting those needs, she said.

Business Times