What do Brazilian voters want?

By Isabel Teles

Brazilians headed to the ballot box on Sunday, in a runoff vote that pits right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, against leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Here are the main themes that have driven the campaign:

Inflation

Cost-of-living concerns are widespread. More than two-thirds of respondents told a Quaest poll in August their purchasing power had declined versus the previous year.

• Annual inflation stood at 4.58% in the 12 months through September, above the central bank’s 3% target, pushing prices — including for food — higher
• Lula has pledged to implement measures to allow for steady cuts in borrowing costs and keep inflation under control
• Bolsonaro wants to reduce and stabilise public debt to bring interest rates closer to international levels and steer inflation towards the central bank’s target

Crime

Crime is another major concern for Brazilians. While Brazil’s homicide rate fell by 40% over the last decade, improvements in fighting crime have been uneven, according to the Brazilian Public Security Forum, a think tank.

• Bolsonaro has pledged a heavy-handed approach to criminals, promising maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offences
• Lula wants to increase the federal prison system’s capacity to hold gang leaders, while still investing in poor areas to reduce the influence of organised crime

Corruption

Corruption is also at the top of voters’ minds, with both Lula’s circle and Bolsonaro facing scrutiny in high-profile cases.

• A major scandal that led to the collapse of mid-size lender Banco Master has sparked multiple probes, including into Bolsonaro over alleged corruption and money laundering, accusations he denies
• Bolsonaro has pledged to fight corruption by shielding state-run companies and pension funds from political appointments and expanding transparency in public spending
• Lula has vowed to deepen anti-corruption and transparency policies even as his son ― who has denied the allegations ― is being investigated in probes involving alleged influence peddling, corruption and fraud

Public finances

Brazil’s public finances are under pressure, especially due to pensions and social benefits. The difficult fiscal outlook has sparked fears of welfare cuts, while many Brazilians are struggling with debt arrears due to years of double-digit interest rates.

• Public debt has risen by more than 10 percentage points during Lula’s current term, reaching 82.9% of gross domestic product
• Brazil’s benchmark interest rate of 13.75% remains among the highest in the world
• Long-term interest rates fell sharply after Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected first-round performance
• He has promised to ramp up fiscal adjustment, targeting 1.5% of GDP improvement in the primary balance within 18 months to lower borrowing costs
• Lula has reiterated commitments to improve Brazil’s primary balance targeting an effective surplus near 1.3% of GDP by 2030, versus a projected 0.4% deficit this year

Foreign policy

After US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on a swathe of Brazilian goods in 2025, foreign policy became a more prominent issue for many Brazilians.

• Bolsonaro has courted Trump and other right-wing allies globally
• He wants to rebuild ties with Argentina, the US and Israel, arguing relations with each are close to breaking point
• Lula has campaigned for a foreign policy based on multilateralism and stronger ties with the Mercosur bloc of South American states and the Brics nations

Reuters