Throughout much of this year, many observers — myself included — have highlighted the encouraging growth prospects for South Africa’s agricultural sector. This optimism has largely been driven by the excellent harvests of grains, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables across the country after the good summer rains of the 2024–25 season.
This optimism is also evident in the high-frequency data. The agricultural sector’s gross value expanded by 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year, and by a more moderate 2.5% in the second, partly because of the delay in the summer crop harvest. In the third quarter, the sector is expected to post strong growth again.
The sentiment in the sector remains positive, with the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index — a sentiment indicator for South Africa’s agriculture — at 63 points in the third quarter, well above the 50-point neutral mark that separates optimism (above 50) from pessimism (below 50). As a result of the abundant harvests, agricultural exports have also been encouraging, reaching US$3.7bn in the second quarter, a 10% year-on-year increase.
While this may make it appear that all is well with South Africa’s agriculture sector, it is not the complete story. Close observers are aware that this optimistic picture conceals certain challenges. The sector’s recovery, while generally uplifting, is uneven.
Among other things, foot-and-mouth disease remains both a challenge and a constraint for livestock farmers, putting the livestock industry — one of the largest components of the sector — under serious strain.
Among other things, foot-and-mouth disease remains both a challenge and a constraint for livestock farmers, putting the livestock industry — one of the largest components of the sector — under serious strain. I was reminded of the severity of this last month, when I spoke to representatives from agribusinesses at a meeting in KwaZulu-Natal and heard about the problems they face.
One which drew the attention of many at the meeting was the challenge foot-and-mouth disease poses to dairy producers in the region.
Representatives from several banks highlighted the financial pressures their clients are facing, while those from the dairy industry shared firsthand accounts of the challenges confronting farmers in the sector when it comes to this disease.
This was a valuable input because many in South Africa’s central and northern regions typically see foot-and-mouth disease from the perspective of beef producers, rarely considering its cost burden on dairy farmers as well.
Indeed, for beef producers, the main issue is the temporary closure of various export markets while farmers must continue to feed their cattle, thereby increasing their costs.
Among the questions that arose was why South Africa was not conducting a full-scale vaccination campaign against foot-and-mouth disease — especially in regions such as KwaZulu-Natal that are prone to outbreaks.
We also learned more about the constraints on vaccination supplies in certain areas.
These challenges are not new and have been discussed in various forums. For instance, in July, the department of agriculture convened a foot-and-mouth indaba to address this issue. Yet hearing directly from those affected in KwaZulu-Natal brought a fresh perspective to the ongoing crisis.
What emerges is that South Africa remains at a critical point regarding the control of foot-and-mouth disease — and various other animal diseases. This underscores the need to strengthen the country’s biosecurity to prevent animal diseases, as well as plant diseases.
As we examine what needs to be done to cushion the sector from this disease, we need to not only ease regulations for importing and registering the various products farmers require, but also increase investment in vaccine manufacturing. We are all aware of the difficulties and the cases of corruption at the Agricultural Research Council and the Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP), a state-owned vaccine manufacturer. According to recent statements by the department of agriculture, work is underway to revive these institutions.
However, the path forward must be taken in partnership with the private sector. We must ensure that entities capable of producing critical vaccines for our livestock industry receive the necessary government support to partner and roll out what is needed to support the sector. South Africa can no longer rely on a single vaccine manufacturing centre — we need multiple hubs where capabilities exist. In parallel, the department of public works and infrastructure should be urged to put more emphasis on the erection of fencing to enforce stricter control of animal movement.
The livestock industry is a pillar of South Africa’s farming economy, accounting for about half of it by value. Ensuring its resilience is vital. This must start with addressing foot-and-mouth disease — and other diseases — head on.
As a country, we aim to promote export-led agricultural growth. To achieve this we must address the animal diseases that are a major constraint.
Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. He is also the author of three books, the most recent — written together with agricultural economist Johann Kirsten — titled: The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa’s Agriculture.
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