US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs decisions and development aid cuts will marginalise Africa, leading to economic collapse, rising hunger and mass uprisings on the continent. The upshot will be a surge in coups d’état, an escalation in existing conflicts, and a marked decline in democracy.
Africa is still struggling with Covid devastation, which unleashed economic collapse, hunger and mass uprisings. Ineffective governments were toppled, existing conflicts deepened, and old conflicts reignited. Unfortunately, the Trump administration’s apparent policy decision to sideline Africa is sure to lead to another protracted period of economic stagnation, political instability, democratic collapse and violent conflict.
These dire consequences will also accelerate the rise of religious and ethnic fundamentalism, as well as terrorism. These developments will lead to starving and fearful and jobless locals fleeing devastated countries for richer ones. So Trump’s actions will have led directly to heightened religious terrorism in Africa, not to mention mass migrations of desperate Africans to developed countries.
African coups proliferate when economic crises, such as hunger or political repression, reach a tipping point and governments do nothing. They either ignore the crisis or lash out at those demanding change.
African governments — whether military juntas, former liberation movements or dictatorships — often refuse to give up power because being in office gives them access to patronage, income and luxury. They simply stage rigged elections or jail their opponents, using state resources to prevent opposition political organisations from accessing public power. As a result, coups are often the only way to unseat autocratic African governments.
In 2024 the DRC received more than $1bn in humanitarian aid, of which 70% was from the US. But with the US development cuts, millions are now in danger of starvation and illness.
Hunger caused by climate change or geopolitical events — such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which caused grain shortages around the world — could also lead to mass uprisings, especially where governments are autocratic, ineffective and uncaring.
African governments often favour one ethnicity, religion, colour, region or ideology over others. In an economic crisis — where hunger, state failure and marginalisation reach a tipping point — these outsider groups may rebel. Civil war then breaks out.
It can take up to 30 years for an African country that has experienced a coup to return to normal. Coups usually come in cycles, as those who were pushed out in turn seek to eject the new rulers. These states usually degenerate democratically and, after a period of initial economic growth — achieved usually because coup leaders introduce pro-poor policies to shore up their popularity — soon collapse when state money runs out.
Trump has dismantled USAid, cut development aid to poor countries (including African ones) and slashed US funding to the UN. NGOs that received US money for distribution to third parties outside the US have also lost the funds they would have passed on to African countries. The Trump administration has cut funds earmarked for the African Development Bank. Many African countries receive not only humanitarian aid, but also development funding for critical public services.
In 2024 the US was the largest single donor to war-torn Sudan. Development assistance cuts mean that nearly 2-million people struggling to survive have been affected in that country. In 2023, Ethiopia received US aid worth more than $1bn (about R17.61bn) to tackle drought and civil conflict, making it the largest recipient of US assistance in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the fifth-largest in the world. Thus, a US funding freeze could lead to deaths and an even larger humanitarian crisis in conflict-affected and food-insecure regions.
The DRC has been in the grip of a decade-long conflict, with the government fighting the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. The conflict is a struggle for land and minerals, and political divisions are organised along ethnic lines. In 2024 the DRC received more than $1bn in humanitarian aid, of which 70% was from the US. But the US development cuts mean millions are now in danger of starvation and illness.
Trump’s policies will also probably fuel a new round of fundamentalist global terrorism, providing the hungry with an alternative to government by coup leaders.
• Gumede is a professor in the School of Governance at Wits University and the author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg)
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